Tuesday, December 11, 2007

Leamer says no recession..... for now

What do I think? I am on the fence on this one.. seriously. I have much respect for Leamer and his work at UCLA and feel strongly that his Anderson Forecast team is more impartial than any of the big brokerage houses' anaylists (ya think?). But the recession call is still too early to call. It's close, but it's still too early. The election year of '08 will answer nearly all of the questions about where this country is headed in the next several years, both politically and economically, which can be one and the same.

We know that home sales and pricing will fall in '08, and foreclosures will continue to rise, but the employment numbers and interest rates in the first part of the year will dictate where we go. Hang on for an interesting ride...

Read this to see what he says about California specifically.


kittykatz said...

Morgan Stanley says otherwise

ryan said...

So basically no one knows shit. Case in point: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9P5JUXoAeUY&refer=home.

$3 Billion loss for the credit markets in the fourth quarter...Damn.